“Trustworthiness,” confidence in estimated effects, and confidently translating research into clinical practice

Abstract

Trustworthy, preprocessed sources of evidence, such as systematic reviews and clinical practice guidelines, are crucial for practicing clinicians. Confidence in estimated effects is related to how different the outcome data were between the two groups. Factors including the effect size, variability of the effect, research integrity, research methods, and selected outcome measures impact confidence in the estimated effect. The current evidence suggests that postrandomization biases cannot be ruled out with a high degree of certainty in published research, limiting the utility of preprocessed sources for clinicians. Research should be prospectively registered to improve this situation, and fidelity with prospective intent should be verified to minimize biases and strengthen confidence in estimated effects. Otherwise, discussions related to preprocessed literature, including P-values, point estimates of effect, confidence intervals, post-randomization biases, external and internal validity measures, and the confidence in estimated effects required to translate research into practice confidently, are all moot points.